In every good cowboy movie, there’s the scene where the outnumbered good guys plot their triumphant return to the town to save the denizens from the horrible bad guys. Outnumbered and outgunned, they plan (and often succeed) to stage their return. Take your pick as to which candidate is the good guy and who’s the bad guy, but McCain is currently plotting his return after a month of bad polls that show him with an almost insurmountable hill to climb to even tie Obama in the polls. Tonight, McCain will be planning and hoping to not just draw (or lose) like the last two debates, but to win and win enough to pull his poll numbers up by over 10%. Meanwhile, Obama needs to just tie in order to continue his lead. What will happen? Who will manage? Watch tonight.

10.36: I think McCain did so badly tonight, that he might actually have turned off a lot of voters. Obama’s answer about Joe Biden and Sarah Palin could have been a litter stronger, but all in all, he had facts, history, and statistics readily at his hand. John McCain was crotchety: he kept interrupting Obama, rolled his eyes, and never made eye contact. McCain needed to hit 10 home runs tonight, and he barely got a man on base. Endgame.

10.31: And its over.

10.29: Obama’s turn. Mentions the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Great reference to the old parable about an idiot is someone who does the same thing and expects different results: “we can’t keep doing the same failed policies of the past eight years and expect a difference result.” Obama mentions the middle class again for the third time, McCain has not said it once. Obama: “We have to renew our spirit of sacrifice.”

10.28: Is there nothing Freudian about McCain’s inability to say the word “affordable” in his closing statement? McCain’s closing statement is very flat.

10.27: Now it’s time for the final statements. McCain goes first by coin toss.

10.25: McCain just interrupted Obama twice in a row. And Obama got the specifics — again — about something as particular as the school system in Washington, DC.

10.24: McCain: “I’m frankly surprised you did not pay more attention to that issue.” Could be possibly be more condescending? Especially after fumbling over the number of people in the DC school system that are eligible for school vouchers. Oh, and there he goes again with town halls and autism. McCain: “All Americans will open their wallets to do so” — but just as long as its NOT A TAX. 

10.23: Why is McCain blinking so much?

10.21: Great response about No Child Left Behind. And Obama is now finding space to agree with McCain about charter schools. Funny that one of McCain’s big campaign claims is that he is truly bipartisan, but every opportunity he has to address Obama he uses to tear into him, whereas Obama actually tries to find consensus in the issues.

10.20: McCain: People have to have served in the military first before joining Teach for America. Hear that? That’s the sound of no one signing up to teach.

10.19: McCain: “It’s the civil rights issue of the 21st century.” Wow, that’s great, saying that in the face of the first Black candidate for President. Is McCain’s whole answer to a massive problem charter schools? Charter schools are hardly a panacea.

10.17: Obama just linked education to national security. In your face, McCain. Obama says we need both more money and reform in education. More early childhood education. Recruit a new generation of new teachers, especially in math and science. Give them more pay, but in exchange for more accountability. Make college more affordable. Obama: “They’re going to have a mortgage before they ever buy a house” — great line. Parents are going to have to show more responsibility, too. 

10.16: Final question for the evening: the US spends more per capita than any other nation in the world, yet our education system laggs horribly. Why, and what would you do?

10.15: McCain just rolled his eyes at Obama. His body language is pure contempt for Obama. 

10.13: Obama responds beautifully: “there already was a law.” And the Illinois Medical Society voted against it, too. Obama: “This is an issue that divides us. But there surely is some common ground, where both those who believe in choice and those who are opposed abortion should come together and say we should try and provide some appropriate information to our youth. No one is pro-abortion, it is always a tragic situation.”

10.11: McCain claims that Obama voted to without treatment for an infant.

10.09: Obama: “The constitution provides a right to privacy.” It’s very rare to hear politicians actually say this in the open. And Obama is also mentioning equal pay for equal work. Well done, Obama. He also mentions that McCain opposes equal pay protection, and McCain smirked when it was mentioned.

10.08: McCain: “I would consider anyone in their qualifications. I do not believe in someone who has supported Roe v. Wade, that would be a part of those qualifications. But I would not apply any kind of litmus test.” So if you support Roe v. Wade, you don’t understand the constitution and therefore cannot be on the bench. Oppose it, and you DO understand the constitution. But no, there’s no litmus test.

10.07: McCain: There’s no ethical litmus test, but Roe v. Wade was a bad decision? Why is McCain using such obscure moments to prove his point? Does he think this will resonate with Joe The Plumber?

10.06: The US Chamber of Commerce supports Obama’s plan. Obama: “I just want to lower your costs, and that includes you, John.”

10.05: McCain: “Senator Government.” Good slip-up.

10.04: McCain: ”Which may be taxed, which will be taxed.” May, or will, McCain? Oh, and “gold plated Cadillac plans” cover “plastic surgery and transplants,” and that’s terrible. How could insurance cover transplants!

10.03: Joe. Again. “Joe, you’re rich, congratulations!” What is he rambling about?

10.01: Obama: “What we haven’t talked about is Senator McCain’s plan.” So, let’s: For about 20 million people, they’ll suddenly find yourself without healthcare. Senator McCain is going to tax people’s healthcare benefits. And the average insurance plan costs $12,000, so if you get a $5000 dollar credit for a plan that costs $12000, that’s a loss.

10.00: John McCain looks terrified. He couldn’t close his mouth for shock. Obama: “Want to know your fine? Zero.”

9.58: McCain’s turn. McCain: “47 million Americans are without healthcare today.” How does he propose to fix this? “We need to put healthcare to build clinics.” Oh, and here comes the $5000 tax cut. And Joe the Plumber is back, again. Will the theme ever die?

9.57: Obama is on about healthcare. He repeats his great line about American citizens being able to get the same healthcare as provided for members of Congress.

9.54: Obama is sounding so much more knowledgeable than McCain. When McCain mentioned Colombia, Obama responded with facts, statistics, and history about the region. When McCain mentioned fuel efficiency, Obama responded with facts, statistics, and history about the North American automotive industry. And McCain’s response to those facts as presented by Obama? McCain attacks Obama about proposing to meet with Hugo Chávez.

9.51: Coastal drilling is such a red herring. Obama keeps looking into the screen, but McCain keeps looking off stage. Obama mentions the parts of McCain’s plans that he likes, and then goes on to attack the parts he doesn’t like. McCain merely attacks Obama, credence or not. McCain: “Maybe he should travel south of the border.” Mind explaining where Sarah Palin has gone?

9.48: Obama answers the question: “10 years,” and follows up with “nothing is more important” than making energy independence a top priority. Tell oil producers than the 68 million acres that they have leased and are not using that they have “to use it or lose it.” Obama: “I believe in free trade. But I also believe that for far too long, certainly during the course of the Bush administration, with the support of Senator McCain, that any trade agreement has been a good agreement.” Obama mentions the new trade agreement with South Korea.

9.47: Funny, McCain is getting all offended for Canada over NAFTA. But Canada hasn’t gotten offended at all. And Alberta (where most of Canada’s oil is located) would rather sell its oil to the US than China, it’s cheaper for them. And McCain is getting angrier.

9.46: While McCain is defending Palin, he attacks Obama again about taxes. Funny, because Obama could clearly respond with Troopergate and the transparency that went on there, like with ignoring subpoenas and all that.

9.45: Obama: ”With a spending freeze, we won’t be able to spend anything more for special needs children.”

9.42: McCain: “She is a reformer. She’s cut the size of government.” That’s pretty easy in tiny Alaska. “Brest of freth air?” Well said, McCain. And now he’s playing the Austim card. Wow, that’s desperate. Every child isn’t Autistic. “Her husband is a pretty tough guy, too?” Because during a huge financial crisis, what I want is a First Dude to help out skinning the moose we’re going to have to eat when the economy grinds to a halt.

9.41: Obama is leading with Biden’s foreign policy. He’s talking about how Biden fights for the “little guy,” maybe not the best answer. How is he better than Palin? You know McCain is going to tear into Biden in just a minute. Answer some of his attacks before he launches them.

9.40: Next question: “Why would the country be better off if your running mate became president rather than his running mate?”

9.39: “Facts are facts.” “That’s not a fact.” Classic.

9.36: “Forty years ago, when I was eight years old, Ayers engaged in despicable acts.” Obama is now mentioning how many Republicans served with Ayers. What a great platform to clear that up. Obama: “Mr Ayers has never been involved in my campaign.” Great come back about ACORN as well. Obama is very concise tonight, he’s getting in and out of topics, as opposed to McCain who has to keep returning to past questions so he can finish his answer.

9.35: Obama just got himself very nicely out of the rally swamp. McCain is clearly on the attack (interrupting, negative characterisations of Obama). Oh, wait, 15th interruption of Obama. And McCain just brings up Ayers. Obama is talking about working together, McCain is talking about “the destruction of the fabric of American democracy” by Obama’s “associates.

9.34: T-shirts are the same as shouting “kill him?” When is the last time the Secret Service investigated a t-shirt?

9.34: “I’m proud of all the people that come to the rallies.” Woah. He is being purposefully obtuse.

9.33: 11th interruption. 12th. 13th.

9.31: Obama went there about what’s been said about Obama at Palin rallies. Obama: “Your running mate didn’t say that’s kind of out of line?” when people at her rallies shouted “kill him” and “terrorist.” Well-played. This is likely the 10th time McCain has interrupted Obama. 

9.30: McCain: “Every other ad was an attack ad on my health care plan.” What Obama campaign ads claim that McCain doesn’t support stem cell research? I am currently in Virginia, where Obama is dumping a fortune on advertising, and have yet to see a single one of these ads McCain mentions.

9.28: Two thirds of Americans think John McCain are running a negative campaign. And John McCain interrupted Obama, again. Obama: “There is nothing wrong with having a vigorous debate,” and just because we’re not doing town halls that this justifies the negative campaigns. John McCain’s campaign said publicly, “if we keep talking about the economy, we lose.” 

9.27: You didn’t repudiate those remarks? What about “kill him?” “Terrorist?” “I want to tell you, we will run a truthful campaign,” how does that relate to calling your opponent a terrorist and related to Bill Ayers? So John McCain’s answer to the question is yes! Yes! He will call Obama a liar to his face.

9.26: Oh, McCain is back on town hall meetings. How is that a response to that question? McCain failed the one town hall he got, why would he want more? This is McCain saying “if you don’t play by my rules, you’re a nasty man.” 

9.25: “Are each of you willing to sit at this tale and say to each other’s face what your ads have been saying?” That’s a good question.

9.22: Great comeback: “Even Fox News disputes it.” And to respond to McCain’s snarky comment: “If I’ve occasionally mistaken your polcies for Bush’s policies, it’s because at the core, you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush. Now you’ve shown commendable independence on issues like torture, and I give you enormous credit for that. But when it comes to economic policies is eight more years of the same thing. And I think the American people understand it hasn’t worked.”

9.20: McCain just got nasty: “I’m not Bush, if you wanted to run against Bush, you should have run against Bush four years ago.” He just stumbled badly and couldn’t find his words. And he’s looking angry again. Obama is grinning.

9.20: Obama: “McCain voted for four out of five Bush budgets.”

9.19: Obama responds: “Earmarks make up one half of one percent of the budget,” and that’s not going to solve the problem. He’s now linking McCain to Bush’s fiscal policy. Well done! 

9.16: Answer the question, McCain. What would you cut? Not increasing home values. Ah, there’s the moderator asking him to actually answer the question, which McCain did not like at all. His face went rigid for a moment. He keeps saying “OK?” and getting angrier and angrier. And by “we have presided,” shouldn’t be say his party has and a Republican president? And there’s the moderator again. Does McCain really not care about Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin? That ethanol comment was very poor, and McCain gets increasingly angry. And where did that one billion dollar pork barrel comment come from?

9.14: Strange question, a very similar one was asked in the second debate. “There is no doubt that we’ve been living beyond our means,” isn’t that stating the obvious? I like his answer about pay as you go, it’s a very easy concept for people watching to follow along with. You spend a dollar, you cut a dollar. As Obama is writing, you can see McCain’s hand flying. He’s taking copious, copious notes.

9.13: The US does NOT have the second highest corporate tax rate in the world, and there are so many loopholes, very few large companies pay any taxes at all.

9.12: McCain fails to mention that his tax plan will increase taxes on the middle class. Hmm. Oh, McCain just interrupted. Not cool, McCain. And can we PLEASE stop talking about Joe the Plumber?

9.11: We’ve been talking about Joe the Plumber for six minutes now. And “class warfare?” Is he trying to covertly label Obama a socialist with that kind of language?

9.10: Obama should use this opportunity to explain some specifics about his plan, but he’s going back to “Joe the Plumber.”

9.09: That was a poor tactic for McCain, he gives an easy pot shot for Obama about his tax plan and gets to tie in Ohio at the same time. Bad opening move, McCain.

9.07: McCain is talking about a guy in Ohio. Let’s see where this goes. Oh, of course, Obama will cause more taxes. Now, if Joe-in-Ohio’s company is turning over $250,000 a year, he hardly qualifies as middle class. Quote so far: “Joe the Plumber.” 

9.06: Obama Middle Class Counter: 2. Lots of proposals here, maybe too technocratic an answer? But he’s connecting here.

9.05: Obama’s turn. Leads with “we’re experiencing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.” Mentions CEOs not “enriching themselves,” and that there’s “no rescue plan for the MIddle Glass. Obama Middle Class Counter: 1. 

9.04: McCain is talking about Fannie and Freddie, but there was a big New York Times article today that shows that Fannie and Freddie’s loans were miniscule in comparison with the private sector.

9.02: And they’re on the stage. First question about the economy. McCain is taking notes, but Obama looks very serious. He’s barely blinking. Question, why is your economic plan better than the other one’s? McCain launches off with “Americans are hurting and they’re angry,” due to the “greed and excess in Wall Street.” Repeating a campaign theme of McCain’s: anger.

9.01: It’s a bit of a late start, but both of them will be seated at a table. They’re very close. This could be both good and bad for McCain: he won’t teeter around the stage like the last debate, but Obama could make him snarl and get very angry by being in his face.

8.59: And we’re off!

8.58: Some of the commentary on MSNBC is claiming that “Obama has to talk to the white man,” but hasn’t he already? The latest polls show him now tying in West Virginia — probably the most white man state in the country. In fact, Obama seems to have picked up almost all of Hillary Clinton’s voters in states to the extent that I am looking forward to seeing some new polling in Arkansas.

8.56: As Keith Olbermann says, what does an “I’ll kick your ‘you-know-what’” look like for McCain? I think he’s already launched so many (failed) attacks on Obama, that there’s very little that could stick.

8.51: Tonight’s debate will also be the most watched of the trio, coming as it does only 20 days before the election. So any slip up or great comeback will have the most impact, especially because there’re a lot fewer news cycles for any mistake to fade from memory.

8.48: Have you ever noticed how when Obama is near McCain, he tries to raise his arms as much as possible Since McCain can’t?

8.39: Keith Olberman just mentioned that McCain needs to get a 10 run grand slam to win tonight. An apt metaphor.