I have been in Douglas County for three days. And I am ready to report that I am very concerned about the accuracy of polling data in this election. And this is a very good thing for Obama.
Why am I concerned? One of the amazingly successful things Obama has managed is pulling in Republican voters in the West. There are almost no counties quite as red as Douglas County, which includes the southern suburbs of Denver like Highlands Ranch, Castle Rock, and Parker. It has grown exponentially in the past eight years: the population is up by 49,98% since the 2000 census from 175,000 to 263,000. And Republican candidates cannot win state-wide elections in Colorado without a serious win in Douglas County.
Case in point: in the 2006 gubernatorial election, Bill Ritter (D) went up against Bob Beauprez (R). Overall, Ritter won Colorado by 57%, but here in Douglas, there were some serious issues with the voting which kept people waiting in line to vote up until 2 am. But when early results came in from Douglas that showed Beauprez only winning by 54% compared to Ritter’s 46%. Beauprez conceded almost immediately afterwards: Republicans have to really win Douglas to win Colorado. Not a single precinct out of 125 went for Kerry in 2004, and only six went for the Democratic candidate, Ken Salazar, for Senate in 2006.
And I am not sure that McCain will win Douglas. Every person I have spoken to has said that they are either a Republican/have always voted Republican and are going to vote for Obama. Just today, one of the apartment managers in one of the units I hit with a voter registration drive today told me while he was photocopying hundreds of my voter registration papers for me that he had never voted Democratic before, but he will be voting for Obama. Another man voted for Bush (both times) but is now voting for Obama. I have yet to hear anyone say “I voted for Gore and Kerry, but now I’m voting for McCain.”
Further, the choice of Sarah Palin has alienated most of the people out here. Speaking with several seniors today, each and every one indicated that they had seriously considered voting for McCain before Palin. See, Douglas County isn’t terribly socially conservative. But it is very pro-business. And I think a lot of people saw right through her appeal on social issues and focused on her lack of experience in business affairs.
All of this is very good news for Obama.
I appreciate your work and your observation. They are trying to win this election by appearances. Everyone wants to be on the side of a winner. So, if they can make it appear that John McCain is doing well, then just maybe he will do well.
By: Nita on 19 September 2008
at 5.28 am
Thank you! Keep up the good work in the Rockies!!
I just want to point out a small typo on this page… “Another man voted for Bush (both times) but is not voting for Obama.” It is correct grammatically, but doesn’t seem to fit in with the rest of ur blog entry. I’m guessing that not is supposed to be now.
Thanks again!!
Fired up!
By: Amrit Sharma on 19 September 2008
at 6.01 am
And let’s not forget these polls are conducted via landlines. Many people under 35 (those likely to vote for Obama) use cell phones only and are not being reached for these polls. More good news for Obama.
By: Victoria on 19 September 2008
at 11.50 am
Good point about polling in a very small sampling ‘universe’. To try to poll in one county would look very much like taking a census as far as polling samples are concerned. A little like trying to make statements about all the Great Lakes by analyzing a teaspoon of water from the north end of Lake Superior.
I’m in a blue state in a swing county. I’ve not seen any county-based polling data. We have lots of people who don’t vote at all (Amish, Mennonite, etc) and a good number of single-issue voters — gun owners. So I’d be very surprised to see polling results from this county that would even represent the county, let alone the state or nation.
Another caution : you are seeing a certain type of voter – Western Republicans. We’ve got another type – racist Democrats, in our ‘rust belt’ areas. So — keep on working your state! Only wish I could say it will balance mine. Unfortunately, the popular vote won’t count across state lines. I’ll salute Colorado on election night when it goes blue (might even break into a chorus of Rocky Mountain High!)
By: Kathleen on 19 September 2008
at 12.02 pm
Nice article……
I would love a follow-up article. Maybe after the debates?
By: The Dude of Life on 19 September 2008
at 12.17 pm
Thanks for the update! I flew out to Denver for the convention and as I looked around at the tens of thousands of people who had gathered there – I could not envision a path for McCain to win Colorado!
I agree with you that adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, only made that a harder task for McCain to accomplish.
By: jericho4119 on 19 September 2008
at 1.08 pm
Polls are ridiculous. I can find a poll that will put Mickey Mouse ahead if I framed it right. I say keep up the good work. My focus is here in the interwebs, but to be out amongst the people is very inspiring.
By: endithinks on 19 September 2008
at 2.51 pm
Hi,
I enjoyed your column and wish I shared your optimism. One thing you don’t seem to consider is the “Bradley effect”. It has proven true numerous times. I think, due to this, Obama is looking better in the polls than he’ll do in the election. I think he must have a 3-5% lead in a state poll to win it due to this Bradley effect. I really, really hope I’m wrong. Thanks for your column. Momentum’s on our side!
By: Paul on 19 September 2008
at 3.23 pm
Always interesting to hear how things are going in the trenches. I live in the very blue Massachusetts so it can be hard to have a genuine pulse on what is going on elsewhere. I’ve been hearing positive things in Minnesota so I am hopeful.
By: Kelly on 19 September 2008
at 5.08 pm
Interesting post. I love hearing what is going on in the trenches. I’ve been hearing positive things coming out of Minnesota from family as well so I am hopeful.
By: Kelly on 19 September 2008
at 5.09 pm
Sorry for the duplicate post. I kept getting error messages. Feel free to delete the extra one.
By: Kelly on 19 September 2008
at 5.10 pm
You are right that there are lots of issues with polling that will may ultimately break advantageously for Obama, but I don’t know how much this post describes them.
Certainly, talking with people who have come over to our side is great, but the polling issue I’ve been seeing is that most polls have to base their samples (who they talk to, in terms of what % from each party/age/gender, etc) on previous election turnouts, with some estimation of any shifts.. it is ENORMOUSLY hard to predict the turnout of this election.. there is no base pollsters can go back to that accurately replicates these conditions. Add to that the overwhelming numbers of previously unenrolled voters and people who have not voted in decades but are coming back into the fold, AND remember that polls usually cannot contact people who only have cell phones (mostly younger voters), and you have a recipe for skewed polling. None of these people are being questioned in most polls of registered or likely voters, shifting “support” towards McCain in many polls.
By: Kate on 19 September 2008
at 5.11 pm
Three major problems with polls:
1- The cell phone/landline debate (as mentioned above). Up until now, these households have not differed significantly enough outside the margin of error to make a difference. Will this change in this election? (my guess, probably)
2- Turnout models: it’s easy to answer a poll, it’s harder to actually go vote. Obama has been putting so much money into (he he) community organizing and field work that this may win him several areas above what polls can predict. Polls are an indicator of opinion, not necessarily behavior.
3- Bubbles and trailing ends of trends. Like a recession, it’s almost impossible to analyze poll trends on the fly– you can really only see the peaks and valleys AFTER they’ve occured. Public opinion usually won’t change in the polls for up to two weeks after an event as spin turns into talking points, talking points into narrative, narrative into conventional wisdom. Did McCain help or hurt himself by choosing Sarah Palin– we can really only begin to judge now as opinions become more consolidated.
By: Andy Wilson on 19 September 2008
at 6.03 pm
Keep up the good work. Lots of love!
By: Margaret on 19 September 2008
at 6.54 pm
Thank you for all your hard work!
By: Margaret on 19 September 2008
at 6.54 pm
I read that these run-up polls (as opposed to exit-polls) were originally intended to be a way of manipulating voters.
Studies show that individuals are very susceptible to group influence. Nobody wants to join the losing side, they may even stay home if the polls tell them to.
They are not regulated or peer-reviewed or held accountable by anyone.
Everyone knows they are all inaccurate, but who knows exactly how inaccurate?
Does anyone believe that 3 out of 4 dentists prefer Crest?
Then WTF do you care when professional career liars tell you what America wants?
Polls should be conducted by universities, peer-reviewed, open-source, and vetted by the public…BEFORE the results publicized. Everything should be publicly funded.
Open it internationally, too. Let the world’s brightest minds constantly refine and improve the system.
Errors or fraud would be a public concern and the institutes responsible should have a amateur, non-partisan civilian board to review complaints.
Truth should not be a commodity, bought and sold like so much crap. It exists in some form no matter how we try to destroy it. Still, it’s a flighty animal…threaten it and poof it goes into hiding. Celebrate it and the whole flock will stay and grow and multiply.
By: Noodle on 19 September 2008
at 10.46 pm
I very much hope our host is correct about Douglas County, but I would caution everyone that it’s effectively impossible for a single person walking around to get an accurate sense of how a community as big as a county really feels about a political issue. (The old line is “the plural of anecdote is not data.”)
In a case like this, things are even worse given that we’d all like Douglas County (and a thousand other counties nationwide) to go heavily for Obama: that brings up selection bias, where we’re all psychologically prone to remembering data that confirm our hypotheses while forgetting the stuff that contradicts them. I fear that that may be a big part of what’s behind SouthToTheLeft’s prediction. I’d love to be proven wrong, though!
By: Rieux on 20 September 2008
at 3.37 am
On the other hand, there are some fairly irrational reasons to be pessimistic about Obama’s chances, too–and Paul’s worries about the so-called “Bradley Effect” are a good example.
As Marc Ambinder reported today, there is a whole bunch of data showing that the Bradley Effect pretty much ceased to exist in 1996. Here’s Ambinder: http://tinyurl.com/4cog7z
Don’t forget–despite the fact that there seemed to be quite a bit of racism dragging his numbers down in places like West Virginia, Mississippi, and southeastern Ohio, Obama consistently lived up to his polling numbers (rather than underperforming them) in the primaries. That doesn’t make sense if the Bradley Effect had been at work.
So cut out the Chicken Little-hood! Obama isn’t going to lose the election because he’s black.
My prediction is that Obama loses Douglas County, Colorado, by an unhappy margin–but wins Colorado and a bunch of other “battleground states,” and thereby wins the election.
Yes We Can!
By: Rieux on 20 September 2008
at 3.48 am
Thanks for your reporting! Keep up the good work.
By: Ellen Fields on 20 September 2008
at 1.07 pm
I really appreciate this post. I’m in WV wondering how people in my own state could be thinking about voting against Obama when everyone around here is hurting. When the other states are hurting, WV is even worse. I have been worried about the poling results. This is the first race I have ever cared about. I’ve never been political. Yes, I do think things are sounding positive for McCain because that is what they think will effect outcome. I hope Obama wins by a landslide, the way it should be. Thank you for your article.
By: kteachums on 20 September 2008
at 1.42 pm
“Every person I have spoken to has said that they are either a Republican/have always voted Republican and are going to vote for Obama”
You have no idea how happy I am to hear that! And, like Kathleen posted above – we need them to help balance out the racist Democrat demographic… sad but very real.
If you need help with on the fence conservative voters, point them to http://www.republicansforobama.org. Hearing other Republicans express their reasons to cross party lines in this election can help!
By: Alina on 20 September 2008
at 3.23 pm
Thanks for your post Rieux. The Atlantic article you posted was reassuring. I also found this info on Wikipedia that lifted my spirits:
While their cause continues to be debated—for example, many polls underpoll African-Americans and young voters—the pollsters’ errors have raised expectations that as the presidential primary season progresses, Obama’s polling numbers will be widely scrutinized as analysts try to definitively determine whether the Bradley effect has become a significant factor in the race.[45] An inspection of the discrepancy between pre-election polls and Obama’s ultimate support [4] reveals significant bivariate support for the hypothesized “reverse Bradley effect.” On average, Obama received three percentage points more support in the actual primaries and caucuses than he did during polling; however, he also had a strong ground campaign, and many polls do not question voters with cellphones, who are predominantly young.
While this makes some points made in previous posts, who says we can have too much good news?
By: Paul on 20 September 2008
at 9.38 pm
You people are extremely foolish to believe that Obama will help our country when his record clearly does not match his rhetoric. You had better look at Obama’s record before you cast your vote. He is dangerous for our country. His positions on foreign policy and national defense are weak. And, his tax increases and spending proposals during an economic downturn will cripple our country.
By: tlzknows on 28 September 2008
at 7.00 pm